Oscar Predictions

OK, the big night is tomorrow night so here are my Oscar predictions in the “Big 8″ categories. For each I will give you who I think will win followed by who I think should win in each category.

Best Picture: will win: “No Country for Old Men;” should win: “Juno”

Best Actor: will win: Daniel Day-Lewis for “There Will Be Blood;” should win: Tommy Lee Jones for “In the Valley of Elah”

Best Actress: will win: Julie Christie for “Away From Her;” should win: Christie

Best Supporting Actor: will win: Javier Bardem for “No Country for Old Men;” should win: Tom Wilkinson for “Michael Clayton.”

Best Supporting Actress: will win: Tilda Swinton for “Michael Clayton;” should win: Swinton

Best Director: will win: Joel & Ethan Coen for “No Country for Old Men;” should win: Tony Gilroy for “Michael Clayton”

Best Original Screenplay: will win: Diablo Cody for “Juno;” should win: Cody

Best Adapted Screenplay: will win: Joel & Ethan Coen for “No Country for Old Men;” should win: Sarah Polley for “Away From Her.”

Yes, I am partial toward three movies on this list: “Juno,” “Michael Clayton” and “Away From Her” but they truly were three of the best films of 2007 and I’d love to see them rewarded. For my money the most amazing nominee on this entire list is 28-year old actress Sarah Polley, who not only wrote the adaptation of “Away From Her” but also made her directorial debut with the film. That a 28-year old can come to understand Alzheimer’s disease at such a young age and then produce the movie that she did is simply an amazing accomplishment. Hopefully the Academy will go against the grain and give her the prize. We’ll see.  Anyway, that’s my two cents.

The Schill Factor

With so much talk about the ridiculous steroid scandal, it kind of went unnoticed that pitchers and catchers reported to spring training this week and so the baseball season begins at last. Maybe now we can all finally start to talk about baseball’s on-field issues. One of the biggest is the Curt Schilling situation with the Red Sox. As was reported, Schilling is expected to miss part or all of this season rehabbing a severe shoulder injury, leaving the Red Sox a man short in the rotation. The question everyone is asking is how much did Schilling know about the injury and when did he know it? Who knows? We’ll never find that out anyway. It is not the best news for Boston but I’m actually not all that worried about it. Schilling was a 50-50 proposition at best for the Sox this season. I don’t think Curt was winning more than 13 games this season and even that is an overly optimistic number. He was erratic toward the end of last season despite a good performance in the postseason so his loss, to me, is not the end of the world. The Red Sox can work around this just fine as long as the following three things happen. Number one, Clay Buchholz must step in and be the pitcher everyone thinks he can be which is the Boston answer to the Yankees Philip Hughes. Buchholz must be ready to fill the Schilling void with 10-12 wins of his own. I believe management thinks he can do it even if his innings are limited to under 180 for the season. We’ll see what happens, but I think Buchholz will be OK and seize the opportunity. Number two, Daisuke Matsuzaka must step up and pitch like a #2 starter. He needs to show more than he did last year for his $102 million price tag. It is time. He must give Josh Beckett legit support from the #2 hole. That is what Sox management had in mind when they signed him last year. I believe another year with pitching coach John Farrell will help Dice-K refine his pitch selection so that he throws what is most effective for him more often. I am confident Farrell will drill the idea home to him all spring that less is more in terms of how many different pitches he throws. Finally, the team has to hope Tim Wakefield holds up in the #5 spot. I am not a big Wakefield fan because I don’t trust knuckleballers and Wakefield broke down at the end of last year. Hopefully they can squeeze one more season out of him. It always seems to come down to Wakefield being a key part of the staff and with the Schilling injury, that is again the case. I know it’s asking a lot for these three things to line up favorably but I think they will. (Although I think Wakefield holding up has the least chance of succeeding) If not, I’m sure Theo Epstein has a backup plan so that’s why I am not panicking about this injury as some Red Sox fans are. I’m not second guessing not getting Johan Santana. I didn’t want to give up Jacoby Ellsbury for him which is what it probably would have taken. After all, the Sox are the defending champions and the Curse is long dead. Life is good in Red Sox Nation, so everybody relax. Once again all the pressure is on the Yankees and their crazy fans to finally win one in the 21st Century.

Attention Cinemaphiles Part 2!!

OK, I couldn’t stop at 10. Here’s 11-20 in my greatest films of all time. Some of these might surprise you.

11) Crimes and Misdemeanors (1989, Woody Allen) I think this is Woody’s best film ever. It explores moral dilemmas, the human conscience and the ability to live with the radical choices sometimes made in life. Martin Landau’s performance is outstanding as a man tormented by his soul and what he’s done.

12) Born On The Fourth Of July (1987, Oliver Stone) Released one year after “Platoon,” it’s a look at the Vietnam experience from a totally different point of view. Should have earned Tom Cruise an Oscar for his bravura performance. At least Stone got the Best Director prize.

13) The Verdict (1982, Sidney Lumet) For my money this is Paul Newman’s best performance. He’s an alcoholic trial lawyer who takes on one last case that finally wakes him up and makes him care again. A study of how lawyers don’t always have hearts of darkness. This is the movie for which I think he got his make-up Oscar when he won for “The Color of Money” in ‘86.

14) Jaws (1975, Steven Spielberg) No list is complete without the first true blockbuster of all time. It changed the way movies are made and marketed, but more than that its story never gets old. Even 30 plus years later it is still fascinating how it scares you more when you don’t see the shark than when you do. Plus it is filled with classic dialogue.

15) The Godfather Part II (1974, Francis Ford Coppola) Probably the only sequel in the history of American cinema that critics say is better than its original. I happen to disagree only because Brando was in the original. Al Pacino has never been better as we watch the meltdown of Michael Corleone’s heart before our very eyes. Oh, and DeNiro is pretty good too as a young Vito.

16) The Children’s Hour (1961, William Wyler) Much like “Network,” it is decades ahead of its time in its depiction of female homosexuality and what happens when people become hysterical about the subject. I had never heard of it prior to finding it recently. I couldn’t believe a film with Audrey Hepburn, Shirley MacLaine and James Garner was that obscure. This is also a very underrated film and is more than relevant today.

17) Quiz Show (1994, Robert Redford) Covering the quiz show scandals of the 1950’s, it is a very informative piece of American history. It is fascinating to see the tainted history of something we take for granted every day: television game shows. Redford shows us that the TV industry can be as ruthless as any business in its quest for ratings.

18) The Contender (2000, Rod Lurie) A political thriller with riveting performances by Joan Allen and Gary Oldman as the two square off in the battle to nominate the first woman to the vice-presidency. It shows the dirty tricks and scandals put forth by those in governmental power in order to keep the status quo. We see up close what we already suspect is going on in Washington, D.C.

19) Mildred Pierce (1945, Michael Curtiz) Oscar winning comeback performance for Joan Crawford as a mother who will sacrifice anything for her daughter, no matter the cost. Ann Blyth is the ungrateful recipient of Crawford’s love and sacrifice. The best movie on the mother-daughter dynamic since “Stella Dallas.” Both performances are excellent in this great film noir piece.

20) Being There (1979, Hal Ashby) Peter Sellers’ final film before his death and another underrated gem of a movie. The story of how a simple man comes to have a lot of influence on the world despite seeing it through the eyes of a child. Excellent support from Shirley MacLaine and Melvyn Douglas, who got a best supporting actor prize. Sellers was nominated for best actor and it’s easy to see why.

Attention Cinemaphiles!

I just finished a second viewing of the three part film series “A Personal Journey With Martin Scorsese Through American Movies.” It’s a history of American cinema as seen through the eyes of one of its greatest artists and it impressed me even more the second time. When you hear Scorsese talk about his love for movies and the inspirations that made him what he is today, you can’t help but be riveted by what he is saying. To me he is America’s greatest living film director and one of the main reasons movies are so loved America. As a result, I was inspired to list my 10 greatest movies of all time. I’ve probably seen over 1500 movies so the choices were not easy. Now, maybe no one will care but hey, it’s my blog so why not? What follows is the name of each film in order of preference followed by year of release, director and a brief comment on why I think it is one of my 10 best.

1) Goodfellas (1990, Martin Scorsese) Far and away the best. An epic of life in the American mob that captures all the layers of the life, not just the glitz and glamour. Should have won the best picture oscar as it was miles better than “Dances With Wolves.” A coming out party for Ray Liotta as a star as the gangsters come to life.

2) The Shawshank Redemption (1994, Frank Darabont) Powerful look at the true meaning of perseverance and friendship. Morgan Freeman’s narration adds just the right touch. If you’re honest, it has to leave you sobbing at the end.

3) Network (1976, Sidney Lumet) Decades ahead of its time in foreshadowing the current age of tabloid TV and news that was only supposed to be a parody.

4) Out Of The Past (1947, Jacques Tourneur) THE Classic film noir story about lust, greed and murder that was the definitive piece of its time. Electric performances from Kirk Douglas, Robert Mitchum and Jane Greer. The basis for 1984’s “Against All Odds.”

5) Planet of the Apes (1968, Franklin J. Schaffner) My favorite movie as a kid and the best sci-fi film ever due to its heavy mix of social commentary, satire and tragedy. It never gets old for me no matter how many times I see it.

6) The Godfather (1972, Francis Ford Coppola) One of a kind masterpiece that presents the more romantic side of mob life. Showed us the importance of the code of honor among family and thieves alike before Goodfellas gave us the brutality of the street.

7) Sunset Boulevard (1950, Billy Wilder) A biting satire of old Hollywood that showcases the has-beens and wanna-bes running around the old studio system. Great comeback role for Gloria Swanson and William Holden is brilliant as usual.

Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner (1967, Stanley Kramer) The great Spencer Tracy’s final film. He died shortly after completing it. The best moment is the final scene with Tracy’s heartfelt speech. Katharine Hepburn later admitted that the tears she shed in the scene were real due to her real-life love for Tracy and knowing he was near the end.

9) Singin’ In the Rain (1952 Stanley Donen & Gene Kelly) Generally speaking, I am not a fan of musicals but I couldn’t stop smiling throughout the whole movie. A truly joyous film with two of the greatest musical pieces ever in the title song and “Good Mornin.’

10) When A Man Loves A Woman (1994, Luis Mandoki) I am fascinated by this portrait of alcoholism because it is the woman and not the man with the disease, which is rare in movies. Meg Ryan is fantastic playing against type and Andy Garcia is also tremendous in this story of the battle between deep love and disease. A very underrated film.

Stay tuned for a continuation of the list in a future blog with films 11-20. There’s so many I left out that I have to keep going!

He Did It His Way

Word this week that legendary coach Bobby Knight resigned and turned his Texas Tech team over to his son Pat caught the sports world by surprise. After 902 victories, Knight decided that he’d had enough. His timing was odd, though. He said he did it with 10 games left in the season in order for his son and players to get accustomed to each other in hopes it will set them up better for next season. It remains to be seen how that plays out. But now that he is gone it should be noted that Knight was good for college basketball. Yes, he made some comments (“If rape is inevitable, relax and enjoy it”) and did some things (showing up with a whip at a press conference, and throwing a chair cross court) that were idiotic but overall Knight did what a college coach is supposed to do- graduate all his players and make them better people by instilling discipline and responsibility. For that, there can be no argument. He was never caught up in any cheating or recruiting scandals, made sure his kids went to class, and turned out quality citizens after four years with him. Yes, there were those who have sour grapes with Knight after realizing that he was tougher than they thought but that is to be expected. His toughness is what made him effective but isn’t for everyone. He never wavered from how he ran a program. The NCAA is one of the most corrupt institutions in sports in my opinion, yet Knight rose above the nonsense and didn’t buy into their hypocrisy. He could see through their bullshit. They would not tell him how best to run a program because he seemed to know the NCAA is just a bunch of politicians. Knight should be commended for the way he did things. Of course, now he is considered a dinosaur because his ways are no longer effective in a world where conscience means less and less every day. Knight’s methods failed to get through as effectively in recent years because people just don’t care about listening to authority when it doesn’t suit them. As soon as they hear something they don’t like they turn a deaf ear and that hurt Knight. People seemed to take him less seriously as time went on. No, the man wasn’t perfect but he was far better than 90% of the college coaches currently out there. In an environment where corruption reigns (the NCAA) Knight was a breath of fresh air. You always knew what you were going to get and never had to worry if Knight’s programs were on the level. Those were two things you could always depend on. For that he will not be forgotten. I do not have children but if I did, Bob Knight could coach my son any day. I know he’s either loved or hated but I think the world needs more Bob Knights. It might make the world a better place.

What Upsets Teach Us

Upsets are the lifeblood of sports. They provide an aura of unpredictability to the games we watch and are the reason we (at least I) keep coming back for more. The idea that we may see something we’ve never seen before is a powerful draw and keeps our attention riveted to the games. The Giants’ upset of the Patriots in last night’s Super Bowl just reiterated that thought for me. But more importantly, I think what the Giants pulled off last night can be seen in a larger context. Sports are very often a metaphor for life and never is this truer than when upsets occur. There are lessons inherent in the art of the upset that apply to us in the world at large. They show us that winning is not a given, it is a goal. We live in an age where a sense of entitlement now pervades our society. Many people think they are supposed to win in life because they were born into it. In some cases, they were never exposed to losing and don’t know how to react to it when it happens. But upsets teach us that it is no one’s birthright to win. You have to work hard to win and the best and brightest don’t always drink from the golden cup because that’s not how life works. I think people are attracted to sports and the underdog because it shows them that anything is possible and that no one has a patent on winning. It has to be worked toward as a goal and earned. It should never be assumed or taken for granted. There’s a reason why sports fans dislike the Cowboys, Yankees, Celtics and Montreal Canadiens so much. It is because those fan bases believe they are destined to win every year. Now in my case, I am a Cowboys fan but do not believe my team is entitled to a championship every year. It’s some of my fellow Cowboys fans who do and give the rest of us a bad name. But I know the other side of the coin as well being a Red Sox fan. I see the same arrogance in Yankees fans that others see in the Cowboys so I understand this paradox very well. Upsets suck when they happen to your team as I found out three weeks ago when the Giants defeated the Cowboys. But eventually you get over it and realize that the team just wasn’t good enough that day and didn’t earn it. There are no guarantees in sports and, by extension, life. Upsets show us that. They show us the possibilities of what could happen no matter how small the odds. The Giants last night proved that to be true. That’s why I admire what they did even though they are one of the Cowboys biggest rivals. I sensed Patriots fans starting to get arrogant about their team in the last few years and that’s why I’m happy the Giants won the game. It showed that no one has an exclusive on winning. I hope in the days and weeks to come people can learn a lesson from this “Giant” upset. I hope they see that feeling entitled doesn’t make you destined to come out on top. We all need to understand that if you don’t stay ahead of the game of life, it might just reach out and humble you when you least expect it. That is the best thing we can take away from an upset of this magnitude. Hopefully we can and will.

On Any Given Sunday…

Well, I never thought I’d say it but congratulations to the NY Giants on their Super Bowl XLII win over the previously undefeated New England Patriots, 17-14. I am a Dallas Cowboys fan so it really pains me to say that. However, one year of Giants bragging rights certainly beats listening to 20 years of gloating from Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Thank God the Giants pulled this off. I get the feeling the rest of the league is relieved as well as they don’t have to listen to the Patriots brag either. Todd Heap of the Ravens made reference to that idea earlier in the week on WFAN radio in New York. He said no NFL player wants to hear how their league was dominated by an undefeated team. He said it was a pride thing and that the rest of the league would be pulling for the Giants. As for the Patriots, this is a colossal disaster. To lose in the Super Bowl after an 18-0 run negates everything the Patriots did all year. If you are a Patriots fan you can’t deny that fact. You can’t say the Patriots went 16-0 in the regular season and call it a true record. They may have the most regular season wins in the modern era but it means nothing because they couldn’t finish the job. Losing the Super Bowl after going unbeaten to that point is an utter disaster. It’s all about who wins the Super Bowl. No one seems to remember the Super Bowl runner up, but they will for years in this case because it was their only loss. They are now right behind the Colts of Super Bowl III in infamy. But that’s why they actually play these games and why America loves sports so much. You never know what you might see that hasn’t been seen before. This victory was extra sweet to witness because we all got to watch Belichick shake Tom Coughlin’s hand quickly and then dart off the field before the final gun. That’s one reason why I am happy the Patriots lost. Belichick is a sore loser and sore winner. Nothing ever makes him happy. He wanted to stick it to the NFL and go 19-0 and run up scores as payback for the spygate scandal and he got it stuck right back up his ass. Good. Sometimes there is justice in sports. Of course he was full of one word answers in his post-game interview with FOX, which is typical. Next year I’ll be right back hating the Giants but for now they deserve all the accolades. They did a hell of a job and should bask in the glory- particularly Eli Manning, who grew up in full today as an NFL player on the biggest stage. He will never be his brother but he showed today that he has the guts to get it done and again, as a Cowboys fan, that is hard to admit but the result speaks for itself. He had it all on the table for him in the last 2:42 and he grabbed it and ran with it. That play he made on the scramble where he was just about sacked and then heaved it up to David Tyree, who made a circus catch, was the play of the game. I never thought I’d ever see Eli do that. He proved himself a winner and someone the Cowboys and everyone else will have to deal with in the years to come. Now, I don’t think this is the biggest upset in Super Bowl history. The Jets 16-7 win over the Colts in Super Bowl III was bigger. I think it was because without it, the NFL as we know it today might not exist. But this game is firmly in second place. To cause an 18-0 team’s season to collapse in an utter disaster is monumental and will be remembered for years. Congrats, Giants. I can’t wait to watch Patriots fans have to deal with losing to both of the Manning brothers, whom they hate, in consecutive years. In some circles, the Patriots are considered the Evil Empire because of Belichick. It’s nice to see that empire defeated in the game they could least afford to lose. It’s nice that everything the Patriots did this season is down the drain. It couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy than Belichick.

You Gotta Be Kidding, Right?

Apparently Senator Arlen Specter and congress have nothing better to do. I mean, the economy is in the toilet, the Iraq war rages on, gas prices are skyrocketing again and the presidential campaigns are in full swing. But Specter and his cronies want to talk to NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell about destroying the spygate tapes from the New England Patriots cheating scandal? This guy is a moron of the highest order. He says he is concerned about the taping, the destruction of the tapes by the league and the penalties Goodell handed out to the Patriots. Gimme a break. Hey, Arlen, why don’t you go investigate why gas prices are approaching $4 per gallon and then get back to us. That might actually be helpful to America, don’t you think? Oh, right, the oil companies wouldn’t like that. I guess that’s not what you call a real scandal. Congress really has a high opinion of itself. First, they feel the need to get involved with the baseball steroid scandal so they can look like they actually do something every day and now this? Specter claims that he is getting involved because he is concerned about the integrity of the NFL and its anti-trust exemption. All of a sudden this is a pressing concern in America? The integrity of the NFL will survive just fine without congress sticking their noses in where it doesn’t belong. It’s not the job of the government to clean up sports leagues. The leagues can and do mind their own houses (I know, baseball’s Bud Selig is an exception but that’s another story for another day) The leagues might not always be perfect but there are certainly more serious world issues for congress to consider. Why they are going to look into something that is so inconsequential in the grand scheme of things is beyond me. Specter and his boys think they are heroes for trying to clean up pro sports when in fact they look like fools. People love sports and congress has no place in them. When will this message sink in with these clowns? I don’t hear or see anyone avoiding baseball because of steroids and their fallout. Red Sox tickets are as difficult to get as ever. If Specter thinks that fans will not watch the NFL because we think the games are rigged he is sadly mistaken. The games are just fine. So what has congress really accomplished by interfering in sports? The answer is nothing whatsoever. Fans like me don’t want to hear from congressmen trying to make a name for themselves. Was I happy with Goodell’s penalty toward the Patriots? Not really. I felt it should have been harsher- like him taking away BOTH of the Pats 1st round picks this spring. But that ship has sailed and it’s time to move forward. The penalty has been issued and I’m satisfied that the scandal is over. Let it go Specter. You’re just making yourself look ridiculous. This is not CIA spying that threatens America’s safety. It’s a sports league, for God’s sake!! So stop grandstanding to try to make this issue more important than it is. The integrity of the NFL is safe without help from the likes of you. This just gives America one more reason to roll its eyes at a congress that has no clue what really matters to the American people.